It appears as expected, Tinubu lost the traditional PDP strongholds in Southern Nigerian (pasts of Lagos, all South-south and South east) but got a good number of the required 25% victories in some parts of the South-south.
He also appears to have lost the FCT (again as expected). PDP losses but Labour Party gains.
However, Tinubu appears to have won the APC strongholds in Lagos to get a slim plurality of votes in the state (which, by the way fits in with patterns not different from past Presidential elections), and all other South west states.
After a big battle in the North West and North East, with Kwankwanso and Atiku, the APC Northern Governors and principalities and powers came through for Tinubu, as they promised.
Presently, he may be the only presidential candidate for now to have obtained 25% in at least 24 states. Getting the plurality of votes is now the next as elections continue today.
Kwankwanso refused to step down for anyone, and he proved his point.
His Kwankwasiyaka is real. He appears to be the next Northern politician with the single largest number of followers as Buhari bows out. What he does with that following in the future is something to look out for.
In conclusion,
- It is reasonable to assume that the PDP is gone for good! Peter Obi has taken over their Southern and part-Christian followership in the North. What Obi does with the followership of these mass of persons will determine how much he shapes the Nigerian electoral ecosystem, just like Kwankwanso, in the future.
- It is also likely that the South West, North West, North East, and a part of North Central have successfully struck the third time, after 2015 and 2019 elections. They have found a partnership and pathway to win presidential elections in Nigeria.
- The North has shown again that they vote for their long-term interests rather than “their brother.” Power had to return to the South for one Nigeria.
- The in-fightling in the PDP partly handed over power to the APC. Losing Obi, Wike, and Kwankwanso dealt a deadly blow to PDP. The votes got divided. The APC stuck together. Lessons learnt.
- Tinubu appears to be the President-elect!
Good morning.
- John Aruoture.
