By Aliyu Abdulwahid
In the wake of the anger over his decision to pick Senator Kashim Shettima, former governor of Borno State as his running mate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), last week, got support from Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, ex-Kano governor who expressed his admiration for the Lagos big politician, what many say could be an indication that he is looking towards the APC for a deal ahead of 2023.
Speaking on Arise TV on Sunday last week, Kwankwaso noted that he liked the combination of Tinubu and Shettima, while declaring that, “Ordinarily, if I cannot get it, I can recommend him (Tinubu), but it’s going to be like building something on zero. When I see him, I wish him well or when you see him before me, tell him I wish him well — but let’s take it easy.”
The former Kano governor’s comments triggered excitement in the Tinubu camp. Many welcomed it as indication that a deal could be possible between his New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Tinubu’s APC, and for good reason.
Kwankwaso’s NNPP doesn’t have enough national spread, and merger talks with Peter Obi’s Labour Party collapsed last month. A close associate of the former Kano State governor had told this medium that Kwankwaso is only interested in using his platform to negotiate ahead of 2023.
And while it had remained unclear as to whether he would be more inclined to reaching out to Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the party on whose platform he had been until few months ago when he officially joined the NNPP, or Tinubu, his interview was a clear indication that he is more inclined to a deal with the former Lagos governor.
Tinubu, as APC candidate, is sure to lock down his Southwest constituency, and make good inroad in the north, where he is expected to battle with Atiku, Kwankwaso and indeed, Mr. Peter Obi, candidate of the Labour Party who is emerging as the preferred choice of Northern Christians who are enraged by the decision of the APC to field Muslim-muslim ticket.
Kwankwaso joining forces with Tinubu, many agree, will give the former Lagos governor an edge in the region, particularly in the Northwest, while Shettima is sure to deliver Borno, even if Atiku would have an edge in a number of Northeast states, which could take Tinubu closer to Aso Rock.
While ordinarily, Atiku would have gotten massive numbers in the South East and South South, the traditional stronghold of the PDP to counter whatever shortages he would suffer in the north, Obi’s emergence as a force, driven in part by the belief that it’s the turn of the Southeast to produce the country’s president, as well as the ex-Anambra governor’s popularity among young people and the neutrals, means that the PDP may no longer be able to rely on the two zones.
“Kwankwaso has large following in Kano, and perhaps Jigawa and a few other Northwest states. He doesn’t have enough national spread to win the presidential election,” noted Anthony Chidi, Abuja based lawyer and political analyst.
“I believe that he too is aware of this, but he is certainly a factor when it comes to northern votes, and if he chooses to back Tinubu, it could be game over for Atiku.”
Kwankwaso who lost the PDP presidential ticket to Atiku in 2019, had apparently sensed that he would still not get the party’s ticket this time and made his move with the NNPP. The NNPP has since welcomed a number of senators and other political heavyweights, particularly in the north.
But, while his supporters are hopeful of a good presidential run in 2023, the challenge he faces cannot be lost on him.
The NNPP doesn’t have national spread, and Kwankwaso is from the Northwest geopolitical zone, same zone as President Muhammadu Buhari who would be completing eight years of office in 2023. It’s very unlikely that Nigerians would favour a retention of presidency in the zone, thus, his bid is unlikely to succeed.
With this in mind, Kwankwaso, according to close sources, is more inclined to negotiating. Indeed, he had waited till Friday, the last day to name a substantive running mate, having initially submitted the name of Ladipo Johnson, coordinator of his campaign in Southwest in placeholder capacity, only after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had disclosed on Wednesday, that his party was yet to upload its nominations for the 2023 presidential election.
On Thursday, however, Kwankwaso unveiled Bishop Isaac Idahosa, presiding Bishop and the senior pastor of God First Ministry, popularly known as Illumination Assembly, Lekki Light Centre, Ajah, Lagos, as his substantive running mate.
The choice of Idahosa, a relatively unknown clergy with no political heft, not even in his home state of Edo, observers say further lends credence to the idea the former Kano governor is not interested in running for president, but only biding his time and waiting to be approached for negotiations.
“Kwankwaso’s choice of a running mate only means one thing,” noted Gimba Kakanda, author and columnist, “He’s not running for President. But, then, he had given us a hint of the direction in which he’s likely to head if his presidential dream tanks. What he needs is a powerhouse like himself, not a miracle-performing pastor.”
Indeed, the former Kano governor could have stood a chance only if he settled for a political heavyweight from the South; an individual capable of pulling numbers in the region to complement the numbers he would get in the north.
But in the event, he went for Idahosa, whose miracle “performances” in his church are comedy materials, and who is unknown beyond the confines of his ministry, as running mate, a decision that got many talking.
“Kwankwaso of NNPP shouting strategy as if he has something strategic in the offing, wrote Deborah Gaji, @Deborahgaji, a twitter user. “He ended up picking one unknown Idahosa with no political clout or name recognition as running mate. He is just a Kano local champion who over rates himself.”
The conclusion many have drawn from the choice of Idahosa is that Kwankwaso has since made up his mind to use his platform to negotiate, and has his eyes set on Tinubu, whom he subsequently praised when he appeared as a guest on Nassara FM, Kano on Tuesday.
“Kwankwaso is highly overrated. I was expecting him to announce an intelligent and resourceful person as running mate, only to announce a quack pastor. said Otun Muri , @OtunMuri, a commentator. “Go on Istagram and see his dramatic performances in the church. Clearly NNPP is set up to negotiate with APC. Mark this.”
Dr. Agbo Major, national publicity secretary of the NNPP, did not respond to BH inquiries in this regard, even as he did not confirm whether the party uploaded names of its presidential candidate and his running mate to INEC portal before the Friday, July 15 deadline.
For Bola Tinubu, however, the prospect of Kwankwaso backing him will a welcome relief amid the barrage of criticisms that have trailed his choice of Shettima as his running mate.
Last week, both Northern Christians in the APC and Babachir Lawal, former secretary to the government of the federation, a known associate of Tinubu, among other groups and individuals, rose up strongly against the choice of Shettima, as anger over the development spread.
On Thursday, amid the controversy, the party announced the postponement of the official unveiling of Shettima, and no new date has been communicated yet.
By his decision to opt for a Muslim-Muslim ticket, Tinubu would lose a large chunk of the substantial Christian population in the north, while sharing Muslim votes with Atiku Abubakar and Kwankwaso, should the latter eventually be on the ballot. However, in the likely event that the former Kwankwaso throws his weight behind the APC candidate, it could be a turning point.
“If that happens, l mean, if Kwankwaso backs Tinubu, then the party is over, at least as far as the north is concerned,” said Anthony. “It would be a very significant boost for the Tinubu campaign. In fact, a turning point.”
State of the race
The crisis that enveloped the PDP following the decision of Atiku Abubakar, the party’s presidential candidate, to name Ifeanyi Okowa, governor of Delta State as his running was still visible last week, as the party headed to Osun State for the grand finale of its campaign ahead of the state’s governorship election held on Saturday.
Though the rally had in attendance, the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku and Okowa, his running mate, as well as its national chairman, Iyorchia Ayu; Sokoto State governor and chairman of PDP governors forum, Aminu Tambuwal; Bayelsa State governor, Sen. Douye Diri; and his Edo State counterpart, Godwin Obaseki, Wike and his close allies, including Seyi Makinde, governor of Oyo State and Okezie Ikpeazu, governor of Abia State were noticeably absent. So, too, was Udom Emmanuel, governor of Akwa Ibom State.
While the spokespersons for the governors had insisted last week that their decision to stay away from the rally had nothing to do with the choice of Okowa, it’s common knowledge that cold war has persisted in the party over the choice of the Delta State governor.
Wike, whom the party had recommended but was snubbed by the former vice president, has not hidden his misgivings and has been meeting with opposition figures, amid speculations that he might not back Atiku in 2023.
The former vice president, had meanwhile, tried to play down the crisis while speaking to newsmen on Osogbo on Thursday. He noted that he was open to meeting with the Rivers State governor to settle whatever differences, while insisting that the crisis is only a creation of the media.
However, what remains clear is that Wike is yet to agree to meet Atiku, and there is no sign yet that he would do so soon.
Peter Obi heads to the north, consults with Ango Abdullahi, gets Northeast elders’ endorsement
Meanwhile, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party last week, took his campaign to the Northern part of the country, with a visit to Prof. Ango Abdullahi, chairman of the Northern Elders Forum. Obi also visited the hometown of his running mate, Dr. Yusuf Datti Baba Ahmed.
Speaking to newsmen shortly after the visits, Obi said, “I came to get blessings and fatherly advice as well as discuss some political issues with the elder statesman.
“This is in view of his position especially in the north and his persistent agitation for good democratic leadership in the country.”
Obi said part of the discussion was to see how the country can turn into a viable and productive nation, as it has been unproductive for too long.
“Because right now the country is not productive, Nigerians are in hunger, they are jobless and are looking for a new life.
“Despite the vast and abundant farmlands in the north, Nigerians are still hungry as we continue to depend on oil, thereby abandoning one of the most important natural resources.
“We must come together and make Nigeria a new nation, a productive nation that can work well for all of us,” he said.
The former Anambra governor’s campaign got a huge boost at the weekend with the endorsement of some North East elders.
The elders in a statement at the weekend, denounced APC’s Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, saying the action of the party would not enjoy their blessings as, according to them, it did not promote equity and fairness in a diverse Nigeria.
In a statement, the elders noted that Nigeria was a secular country and no religion should be elevated against others and tasked APC to reflect on its action given that Nigeria of today had shifted from 1993 where such was promoted without any opposition.
The North East elders, operating under the aegis of Coalition of North East Elders for Peace and Development (CNEEPD), told APC not to be comfortable with their action, saying the rigging which it was relying upon as party in government will fail them woefully as according to them, Nigerians would vote and safeguard their votes without fear or intimidations from APC’s hired agents
In the statement by its National Coordinator, Engr. Zana Goni, the group insisted that contrary to APC’s expectation, it would lose the presidential poll before 12 noon, adding that “indications across the country were not in favour of the party that had put Nigeria in its present bad situation.”
The North East elders also flayed the attacks being carried out on the facilities of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the South East, attributing the developments to some sponsored terrorists outside the zone with the aim to deplete the South East voting strength.
The statement read in part: ”As the 2023 general elections draws near, we the Coalition of North East Elders for Peace and Development have noted with concerns some actions and statements by some political parties and actors in our democratic process.
“The latest being the impunity orchestrated by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in settling for a same faith ticket in a multi-religious, multi-ethnic and above all, multi-cultural country like Nigeria and the party’s defence of the absurd action in the face of widespread opposition to the abnormalities.
“As leaders who have not only monitored but also actively contributed to political developments in Nigeria for decades, we wish to categorically denounce the APC’s action which we view as inimical to the progress and growth of Nigeria.
“Without mincing words, we describe the party’s decision in fielding Muslim- Muslim ticket in the 2023 presidential election as the highest level of madness, insensitivity, and an evil agenda against our dear country which we have laboured for years to build.
“This decision which threatens the unity of the country does not have our blessings and must be resisted by all Nigerians of good conscience. Anything contrary will threaten the fragile unity and peace of Nigeria.”
According to the group, ”To make the matter worse, they picked Alhajji Kashim Shetima, a man whose alleged link with terrorism is still a subject of debate in public domain.”
“How can someone try this in Nigeria? As it stands together Christians and Muslims have started supporting candidates based on religious lines, in mosques and churches across the country. This is not what we need now.
“The peace in Nigeria is too fragile to contemplate this kind of madness as exhibited by the ruling APC. The party has actually made more Nigerians to believe that they have an Islamization agenda as widely speculated,” it said.
The group alleged that attacks on INEC facilities in the South East are orchestrated by some political interest groups to reduce the voting strength of the region.
”Given the carefully coordinated attacks launched in recent times on both INEC personnel and facilities, we will not be wrong to believe that the actions are carefully calculated, planned, and executed by suspected Boko Haram terrorists with aim to disenfranchised the people of South East and also put them in the bad light.
“Security agencies must clamp down on these evil people and bring them to book immediately,” it said.
“We also urge all the South East communities to constitute a special task force to protect INEC facilities and officials across the zone,”it tasked the region.
