•Ruling Party Leans Towards South-South
•APC, PDP Bigwigs, Business Leaders Meet Over Consensus Candidate
•Atiku’s Bid Fractures Party •Southern PDP Governors Seek Ticket
Where should the next Nigerian President come from in 2023? Which of the six geopolitical zones should take the slot?
This is the loaded question to which the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are striving to find an answer ahead of the 2023 general election.
Ordinarily, where a President comes from in the most populous black country in the world should not pose a problem, if issues of accountability, due process and rule of law were the overriding principles in governance. But this is a country where promises of social welfare have been serially abused and broken with impunity by elected and appointed government officials that issues of place of birth and religious belief trounce transparency to necessitate recourse to affirmative action and the often dodgy federal character principles.
“Zoning in a federal state like Nigeria is like a safeguard that ensures no part of the country is marginalised,” said Professor Ayo Olukotun, Director of the Oba S.K Adetona Institute of Governance at Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Awoye in Ogun State.
“In a federal constitution, you have laws such as what we call consociation. It is part of the federal character principle we operate in the constitution and also the affirmative process. If it is agreed by consensus that the presidency must rotate, so be it. If the North has had it, it must go South. It is not what can be enforced anyway. So you have to allow candidates from the North to contest as well.”
HEADACHE FOR APC, PDP
The idea that zoning is a gentleman’s agreement that cannot be enforced is the source of the problem, especially when considering that Nigerian politicians are everything but gentlemen in a proper sense of the word.
Even the operation of the Federal Character principle in the Nigerian Constitution has not been as straightforward as it is spelt out in the law of the country. Every government in power has been involved in some form of nepotism and favouritism because of the Big Man nature of Nigerian politics, whereby the leader sees himself as a reflection of the fortunes and downturn of his tribe first.
At the beginning of the current republic in 1999 until 2015, the dominant political party was the PDP. The party inserted zoning in its constitution. It has struggled to maintain that arrangement, beginning with the administration of President Olusegun Obansanjo, who came from the (South) in 1999 through his successors, namely, late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (North) and President Goodluck Jonathan (South).
Bagudu
Logically the arrangement should go North in 2023. But something happened along the way. Political expediency crept in. The party lost the 2015 general election after governing the country for 16 unbroken years. Racked by dissension and defections, it set up an Elections Review Committee to review why and how it lost the 2019 election to the APC.
The Committee, headed by Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, recommended, among other things, that the zoning arrangement of the party be looked into and possibly scrapped to allow all zones to contest the presidency.
Following that recommendation, all hell was let loose in the party. It was like a clarion call to every zone to stake their claim in the sharing formula that has dominated almost everything in the country.
But the real game changer was the take-over and consolidation of power by the APC. Apart from creating a two-party dynamic and thereby widening the scope of contest for aspirants for the presidency, APC’s emergence also made it impossible for the PDP to hold on to its formula as it provided a viable alternative to its rival.
That is why the Southern Governors Forum could take an inter-party decision in their meetings held in Lagos and Enugu last year that the South must produce the President in 2023.
With these dynamics playing out on a broader canvas, both parties are finding it hard coping with the zoning arrangement, which was manageable when the PDP was the only political party in charge. That is why zoning can be used simultaneously in a geographical North/South context and as a formula for the six geo-political zones.
The PDP is currently torn between who, from where and how many in its fold can contest the number one seat in the country. Governor Mohammed, from the North-East, wants to contest for the position. Same as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is also from the North-East. From the North-West comes former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State, who has also indicated interest in running for president. Others are former Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki, who is from the North-Central.
A former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, is an aspirant of the PDP from the South-East. Pharmacist Sam Ohuabunwa (South-East), has declared his aspiration on the platform of the party.
Governor Nyesom Wike who is doing his second term as Governor of Rivers State, suggests through his body language that he is preparing for the presidential election. Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State is another PDP presidential aspirant. Governors Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State and Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom have their eyes on the Presidency as well. There is even talk that Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State is interested in the presidential race. Thus, all the six geo-political zones in the country are well represented, with aspirants on the platform of the party.
So when media mogul and founder of DAAR Communications, owners of African Independent Television and Raypower FM Radio Station, Chief Raymond Dokpesi, while meeting with party stakeholders nationwide on behalf of Atiku Abubakar, said that only a northern candidate can take the party back to the presidential villa, voices of dissent from the South swarmed on him. When ex-Governor Aliyu Babangida of Niger state echoed Dokpesi’s claim, the National Chairman of the PDP, Prof. Iyorchia Ayu, had to formally issue a statement denouncing their views publicly.
The party said: “This is completely misleading as it does not in any way represent the position of our party.
“For the avoidance of doubt, the PDP emphatically and unequivocally states that it has not zoned its presidential ticket to any part of the country.
“The PDP is a political party founded on democratic principles and every action of the party, including zoning, is based on extensive consultations, discussions and consideration of all the issues, as well as the various tendencies and interests across the nation, with the main objective of ensuring that the unity, peaceful co-existence and development of our nation are reinforced and promoted.”
Governor Wike was so embittered by the declaration of both party men that he had to issue a formal statement.
In a statement titled, ‘We’re asset, not liability to the PDP, Nigeria’ and signed by his Special Assistant on Media, Mr. Kelvin Ebiri, Wike warned Chief Dokpesi not to assume the position of PDP in the 2023 presidential slot.
In the statement, he said, among other things; “We are assets. We are not liability. When we say we are going to support the party, we support the party with everything we have. We are not in America where you do television campaigns.
“When we come out, we will choke them. They know it. So, everybody should relax, let the south do their homework and then they’ll make a proper statement.”
Wike explained that since PDP is an opposition party, what is most tenable is for every member to forge unity within the party, build a greater team spirit and protect it from those who want to sow seeds of discord.
He said those who thought they could use money to overwhelm the process of internal democracy, and buy off the ticket, would be disappointed.
“What is necessary is how the party must be cohesive. To make sure that the party gets it right. Then when you threaten that it must be north then you’re not trying to make peace or when you threaten it must be south you’re not trying to make peace,” he said.
Meanwhile, the governing APC, is facing the same dilemma, although many of the aspirants who have shown interest are mainly from the South with the notable exception of Governor Yahaya Bello from the North-Central.
They include former Lagos State governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (South-West); Ebonyi State governor, Dave Umahi (South-East); Senate Chief Whip, Orji Uzor Kalu (South-East); and former Governor Rochas Okorocha (South-East). Others who are still weighing the options, though their body languages have since given them away are Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (South-West); Governor Kayode Fayemi (South-West); Transportation Minister, Rotimi Amaechi (South-South), Senator Ibikunle Amosun (South-West) and Works Minister Babatunde Fashola (South-West).
Again like the PDP, the party had to hurriedly deny a recent online report that it had zoned the presidency to the South and the position of vice president to the North.
Reacting to the report, the party’s Interim Chairman, Buni said it was false, baseless, unfounded, misleading and had nothing to do with him.
The Chairman of the Caretaker Extraordinary Convention Committee said the party had not taken any decision at any fora on anything relating to zoning of offices.
“The publication is just a figment of the author’s imagination that has nothing to do with the Chairman and the party. The public is hereby urged to disregard the purported list as it is misleading and completely false,” he said. The wording was almost similar to another denial in August 2021.
THEANALYSTNG can however authoritatively report that the APC has in principle agreed to pick its presidential candidate from South-South.
Late last year, a former governor of Ogun State and chieftain of the APC, Chief Segun Osoba, had stirred the hornet’s nest in the party when he declared that there was an agreement on zoning of the party’s presidential ticket before President Muhammadu Buhari assumed office.
Osoba said, “During the APC merger, we decided that the President of the party would come from the North, the chairman would be from the South and after eight years, the Presidency would return to the South.”
Almost instantly, there were many reactions against him from the North. A representative view is that of Danladi Rabiu, a member of the Kwankwasiyya political movement, which belongs to ex-governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso. He said that nothing like such a discussion on power rotation ever happened.
Rabiu said, “Our then political leader, Alhaji Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, was a member of the inner caucus and constitution drafting committee of APC. I remember we asked him this question in a meeting and he said emphatically that nobody raised the issue of rotation. All APC leaders from the North and South-West were interested in how to dislodge the then President Goodluck Jonathan from power and take over. Buhari was seen as the man that controlled block votes from the North and since the South was vulnerable to Jonathan, it was decided that Buhari stood the best chance to defeat GEJ than any other politician, North or South, in addition to his anti-corruption integrity. Therefore, Buhari was chosen on personal merit, not because of any rotation.”
With the disagreements and denials on zoning, both political parties are finding a way to manage the crisis arising from the controversy over zoning.
According to findings by THEANALYSTNG, the APC and PDP will next month make a formal announcement on where their presidential candidates will emerge from.
Given the winners-take-all politics played in the country, the PDP is desperate to return to power after spending eight years in the political wilderness, while the APC is ready to cling to power, which it has tasted for the past eight years, by 2023.
Checkmate is the game in town for both political parties. With the contest for the chairmanship of the APC narrowed to candidates from the North-Central, namely former Governor Umaru Tanko Al Makura of Nasarawa State and Senator Sani Musa, the APC is playing catch 22 with the PDP, which also got its National Chairman from that zone. More problematic for the APC is the fact that President Buhari is the main force holding the party together and the imminence of his exit is causing goose pimples among its big wigs.
Senate President Ahmad Lawan raised this fear last year at the party’s First Progressives Youth Conference 2021 held in Abuja. Lawan, who called for more consultations, coordination and patriotism among party members to deliver campaign promises to Nigerians or else campaigning in 2023 might be very difficult, said, “Whether we like it or not, the truth is that President Muhammadu Buhari remains the person with the bulk of the support we get across this country in APC. When he leaves, he will still have some roles to play. But I dare say that it is after he leaves office that the APC will face its challenge.”
Another headache facing the parties is that the zoning formula has been so politicised that it is turning into a bitter struggle among the geo-political zones in the South and thus opening the parties to factionalisation and possibly defections.
As Dr Kunle Olajide puts it, any zone in the South can lay claim to the presidency if it understands the dynamics involved. Olajide, who is Secretary-General of the Yoruba Council of Elders, told THEWILL: “The understanding is that the presidential position must rotate between the North and the South. The North will be finishing its eight years next year. It depends on how well each of the zones in the South play their politics. This is because to win the election, they must not be restricted to the South alone; they must garner votes across Nigeria. So it depends on which zone has the quality, the capacity and the understanding of the Nigerian nation to be able to spread.
“If it is the South-West that continues to have it repeatedly, so be it. If the South- South can outplay the South-West, fine. If it is in the South-East, fine. Anybody who wants to govern the country must have an understanding of the workings of this country. So, I disagree that a president must come from one zone in the south. No, the presidency is not served a la carte. It is not turn by turn. It is about politics and you must be able to play your politics right.
ZONING FORMULA
According to elder statesman, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, it was the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in the Second Republic that introduced zoning and rotation into Nigeria’s political vocabulary.
Yakasai, who is the leader of the Northern Elders Forum, told THEWILL: “I was a member of the NPN in the second republic. It was that principle that brought everybody together. The NPN did not belong to the Yoruba, the Igbo or the Hausa. We were all equal partners in the NPN.”
When asked why the same principle that made everybody equal partners in the NPN was causing so much heat in the polity, the one-time political adviser to late President Shehu Shagari on the platform of NPN, said frontally, “You asked me about 2023 presidency, whether it should be zoned to a particular place? Let me tell you the truth, I am tired of the American presidential system. I prefer Nigeria adopting the French system of government. We are thinking of changing the constitution. I hope they will do that, so that this country, whether we love it or not, can move forward. The mindset of whether it is North or South will be taken care of. With the French system, if the president is coming from the North, the prime minister will come from the South or vice versa. There will be peace and harmony in the country as well as team work and synergy.”
UNCERTAINTY OF ZONING
Surprisingly, many of the presidential aspirants are also exploiting the membership of groups that would boost their chances.
At the meeting of The 2022 Committee in Lagos, a bipartisan group which has President Buhari’s backing, for instance, one of the key members was holed up for three days at their meeting, debating with others how to “Rescue Nigeria”, from insecurity, economic downturn and secure peace in the country while he was in contact with a group coordinating his presidential ambition with a formal launch of the group in Kano.
THEWILL has it on authority that the 50 Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), students and Labour groups that stormed Kano last Tuesday to launch what they called The Nigerian Agenda, are fronting for a presidential candidate that is actively involved in the 2022 Committee, whose co-convener, Kashim Ibrahim Imam, has said is unconcerned about any presidential candidate.
In the same vein, there is friction among groups over zoning. For the Chairman of the Southern Governors Forum, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, who has been insistent that any party that fields a candidate from the North would lose the presidency, someone asked the question last week: “Should the parties concede the presidency to the South, who will Akeredolu most likely support? Tinubu, of course. Will the South-East agree to that?”
As though to provide an answer to this question, leaders of the PDP in the South-East met last week and warned the party against zoning the presidency to the North. They insisted that it was the turn of the South-East to produce the next presidential candidate of the party, stressing that both the South-West and South-South have had their turns.
According to them, the zone deserves to produce the next president because of its people’s “eminent qualifications and overwhelming contributions to the development of all parts of the federation through the years,” adding that zoning the presidential tickets of parties to the South-East would be “the best way of ensuring that we build a nation that leaves no one or group behind.”
Those who spoke include former Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim; Senate Minority Leader, Enyinnaya Abaribe; former Abia State governor, Theodore Orji; PDP Vice-National Chairman, South-East, Ali Odefa, and former Imo State chairman, National Population Commission, Duru Iheoma.
According to Abaribe, “Igbos have all it takes to rule this country and make it better again, therefore, I encourage all Nigerians to support this noble intention.”
Anyim described the South-East as a good market for presidential material and sees no reason why any other region would want to rob the Igbo of the chance of producing the next President of Nigeria.
DYNAMICS OF ZONING FOR 2023
The signal from the meeting of The 2022 Committee, which was attended by the who-is-who in both political parties, especially the Chairmen of the Governors Forum of each of the parties, namely, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of the PDP Governors Forum, Governor Bagudu Atiku of the Progressives Governors Forum of the APC and Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum, Kayode Fayemi, to discuss and chart a new course for Nigeria’s survival, is that there is a movement towards an inter–party consensus on who succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023.
Given the prevailing sentiments in the country, particularly with many prominent northerners, such as Governors Aminu Masari of Katsina State, Nasril el-Rufai of Kaduns State and Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State, rooting for a southern candidate as president in consonance with the decision of the Southern Governors Forum, there is every likelihood that both political parties may zone the presidency to the South.
Between them, the APC, more than the PDP, is poised to zone its presidential ticket to the South. THEWILL has learnt that the party is eyeing a candidate from the South-South with an Igbo background that would serve as a bridge between the South-South and South-West geo-political zones.
For now however, there is no telling how the two major political parties will ride the stormy zoning arrangement ahead of the 2023 general election.
